The Future of the Local Church: Crisis, Hope, and Growth

A Moment of Testing and Opportunity

I recently took note of some troubling headlines. They were nothing new, but as I take the helm of Restoration Fellowship International, they seemed to stand out all the more. Across the United States, and much of the Western world, the Church is navigating one of the most challenging seasons in its modern history. Congregations that once thrived are now shrinking. Longstanding and historical churches are closing their doors. Some of this is due to doctrinal drift away from the Word of God, attempts at cultural relevance, or just poor management; and in some cases it pastoral exhaustion with little to no plan of succession. Pastors, especially sole practitioners, are carrying unprecedented emotional, spiritual, and financial burdens. Yet, Messiah Yeshua/Jesus reminds us that seasons of pruning often precede seasons of fruitfulness (Jn. 15:1-2).

The faithful in Messiah, in every generation, have faced challenges. Whether from external pressures, or internal strife, the faithful have had to face each trail with fidelity to the unchanging Gospel of Messiah.

In this article, I hope to examine the reality of church closures and downsizing, using reputable research organizations, while also offering hope-filled encouragement and practical direction for pastors and leaders. I will also be referencing my recent article Balancing Relational and Programmatic Church Models: Vision and Roles on the Restoration Fellowship International website, that argues the way forward is not retreat, but renewed vision, relational depth, and Spirit-led innovation.

The Reality of Church Closures

1. Statistical Trends in the United States

Multiple research organizations have confirmed that more churches are closing each year than opening. In 2019, Lifeway Research reported that roughly 4,500 Protestant churches closed in the United States, while only about 3,000 new congregations were started, indicating that closures outpaced openings.[1] More recent studies indicate that approximately 4,000 – 7,000 churches close annually in the United States, a trend that began before the pandemic, but accelerated afterward. It is now projected that in 2026 we may see 15,000 church closures, mainly in rural areas.  

Pew Research Center has also documented a major shift in religious affiliation. According to their longitudinal studies, the percentage of Americans identifying as Christian has declined dramatically over the last two decades, while the number identifying as religiously unaffiliated has reached historic highs, referred to as the “nones.” Pew notes that those identifying as Christian among the U.S. adult population has declined over recent decades, decreasing from 78% in 2007 to 62% in the 2023–24.[2]

2. Cultural Shifts Behind the Numbers

Axios and other news outlets summarizing Pew data have emphasized that the decline is not just institutional, but cultural. Younger generations increasingly express skepticism toward organized religion while still searching for meaning, community, and purpose; there is ample opportunity for sharing the Gospel, if we remain missional. As many in ministry have noted over years of conversation and counseling, declining connection to church life has not given individuals or families greater freedom, but a more heightened sense of isolation and disconnection from others as they pursue a hurried life.  

This reality presents both a warning and an opportunity for ministers and churches willing to reclaim authentic community and discipleship. Continuing to connect with the disconnected that we know, even if they were never part of your ministry or church, helps to foster the sense of connection and meaning in their lives. Indeed, this is a worthy investment of time for the cause of Christ.

3. Global Context: Closures Under Pressure

While Western churches often close due to cultural or population shifts, coupled with financial strain, many churches globally face closure due to persecution. Open Doors International has reported that thousands of churches are shut down or attacked annually in regions hostile to Christianity. In persecuted or restricted nations, the church is being intentionally silenced, so their closure is not due to declining participation or membership, but external oppositional forces.

From a global perspective, Western leaders need to be reminded that decline is not universal, and faithfulness often flourishes under pressure.

Why Churches Are Struggling

1. Post-Pandemic Disruption

Five years removed from the shutdowns, and we see that the COVID-19 era exposed structural weaknesses in many congregations. Half a decade later, it is reported and we hear of many churches that have been unable to regain attendance levels they experienced before the shutdowns, even from their own members. In some cases, the issues revealed by the shutdown may have been pre-existing; overlooked or unnoticed until reopening.

Even now, burnout among pastors, volunteer shortages, and disengaged members remain ongoing challenges.

2. Leadership Transitions and Aging Congregations

Many churches close following pastoral retirement or death, particularly when no succession plan existed, or it was disrupted with little to no time for plan B to be formulated. Aging congregations without leadership development pipelines struggle to adapt; and when resources to maintain the campus or provide financially for a new pastor grow thin, closure seems the obvious answer. But sadly, sometimes it is the answer of last resort.

Leadership training and succession plans in the event of retirement, resignation or death should be in ongoing development, allowing younger ministers the space to learn and grow on the job, while under the tutelage of the more senior minister. This provides a level of comfort, familiarity and continunity for the church. Adjustments to these plans should be made as situations change without delay.

Encouragement for Pastors and Leaders

1. Re-Center on Christ and Mission

In my article, Balancing Relational and Programmatic Church Models, the call is clear: mission must precede method. As I wrote, growth without relational care leads to exhaustion, while relationships without mission drift into stagnation. As leaders and shepherds we need to remind ourselves that congregations are not sustained by strategies alone, but by faithful obedience to Messiah’s mission and calling to our specific ministries. We are to tend to and feed His sheep in our care.

2. Deepen Relational Discipleship

In this fragmented age, churches that prioritize relationships become a refuge for the faithful. Smaller churches, in particular, can thrive by emphasizing intimacy, care, and friendship. Dietrich Bonhoeffer wrote: "The church is the church only when it exists for others."

Relational discipleship fosters belonging, accountability, and spiritual maturity in relationship to Messiah, and each other.

3. Balance Programs with People

In my article, I emphasize that programs should exist to strengthen relationships, not create a substitute for them. Healthy churches resist both extremes of relational and programmatic church models: relational informality without structure, and programmatic busyness without pastoral care.

4. Lead with Hope, Not Fear

Church closures make headlines, but fear does not lead ministry: the Lord Jesus Christ does. Scripture consistently reminds leaders that God works powerfully through faithful assemblies of His people. As Zechariah exhorts us, we are not to despise the small beginnings (Zech. 4:10). The message is clear, care for what He has entrusted to you, keeping in mind that for the first 300 years of church history, we did not have church buildings as we have come to know them.

Hope-filled leadership inspires perseverance, creativity, and trust in God’s provision.

The Church Is Being Refined, Not Defeated

“Simon Peter replied, “You are the Christ, the Son of the living God. And Jesus answered him, ‘Blessed are you, Simon Bar-Jonah! For flesh and blood has not revealed this to you, but my Father who is in heaven. And I tell you, you are Peter, and on this rock I will build my church, and the gates of hell shall not prevail against it” (Matt. 16:16-18, ESV).

Consider this closely. Peter makes an amazing confession, and Yeshua/Jesus answers him that the church will be built upon this confession, and against His assembly the gates of hell will not prevail. This should give us hope in light of all that we are facing. Certainly, the troubles of this age will not prevail against His church! What shall we do? Be faithful.

Church closures are real, painful, and deeply personal. But they are not the final word. The Body of Christ has endured persecution, plagues, cultural upheavals, and institutional collapse before, and emerged renewed. A setback may be His way of moving you forward. Trust Him.

As leaders, we must: center the mission on Christ; cultivate deep relationships; use programs wisely; develop leaders intentionally; engage communities faithfully; remain missional.

The task before today’s pastors is not just to keep doors open, but to shepherd living, Spirit-filled communities of faith. In doing so, the Church will not only survive this season, it will bear lasting fruit for generations to come. Faithfulness, not fear, has always been the seedbed for renewal in the congregational setting; and He will faithfully lead us.

Yes, the data shows that many churches face real challenges: declining affiliation, attendance shifts, financial pressures, and the risk of closure. But even as some doors close, the mission of Christ’s church endures. The gospel is not bound to a building, a program, or a specific cultural moment. It thrives wherever the faithful are rooted in Christ, committed to one another, and sent out for the sake of others.

The trends we see should not paralyze, but motivate deep reflection, renewed commitment, and strategic compassionate connection. Trends change from moment to moment, especially in an age of social networking. Leaders leading with clarity, humility, and Christ-like love will find that even in difficult times, the church can flourish, bearing lasting fruit.

My dear colleagues: your ministry matters; your congregation matters. And in the balance of relational warmth and strategic mission, there is a pathway not just to sustain, but to grow with purpose and impact to the glory of God. You, dear pastor, are not called to lead in guilt or shame due to the “size” of the ministry, be faithful to His commissioning of your life.

Headlines will distract us from the mission if we forget that the only headline of import concerns an empty tomb and a coming King.

Maranatha. Shalom.
Bp. Justin D. Elwell

[1] Yonat Shimron; Study: More Churches Closing Than Opening; Religion News Service; May 26, 2021; https://religionnews.com/2021/05/26/study-more-churches-closing-than-opening/?utm_source=chatgpt.com; accessed, December 14, 2025.

[2] Smith, Gregory, Alan Cooperman, Becka Alper, Besheer Mohamed, Chip Rotolo, Patricia Tevington, Justin Nortey, Asta Kallo, Jeff Diamant and Dalia Fahmy. 2025. “Decline of Christianity in the U.S. Has Slowed, May Have Leveled Off.” Pew Research Center. doi: 10.58094/4kqq-3112; accessed, December 15, 2025.